Numbers Don’t Lie—But They Don’t Always Tell the Whole Truth: Understanding Bidenomics and the 2024 Disconnect

By Michael Kelman Portney

Despite months of the Biden administration touting the success of "Bidenomics," Donald Trump clinched the 2024 election, a result that left many political analysts scratching their heads. After all, the economic numbers seemed to paint a picture of progress: unemployment was historically low, inflation had cooled significantly from its 2022 highs, and wages had grown. Yet, for millions of Americans, the numbers didn’t seem to match their lived experiences. This disconnect between data and perception may hold the key to understanding why Bidenomics failed to resonate—and why Trump won.

The Numbers Looked Good, But What About People’s Lives?

Economists often speak in metrics: GDP growth, inflation rates, employment numbers. These indicators can be vital tools for understanding the economy’s direction, but they don’t always capture what it feels like to live in that economy. During the Biden years, economic data suggested a recovery from the pandemic and progress on key economic fronts. Yet, polls consistently showed that Americans were pessimistic about the economy, with a significant portion feeling that the country was on the wrong track.

The problem lies in how these numbers are experienced at the ground level. Inflation, for example, may have slowed, but it still left prices much higher than they were pre-pandemic. Wages grew, but often not enough to fully offset the increased cost of living. Homeownership remained out of reach for many as interest rates soared, making mortgages prohibitively expensive. The statistical story of recovery didn’t match the emotional reality of families struggling to make ends meet.

Data vs. Narrative: The Power of Perception

One of the greatest lessons of the 2024 election is that perception often outweighs reality in shaping voter behavior. Bidenomics may have been a collection of effective policies on paper, but it lacked a compelling narrative that resonated with voters’ day-to-day struggles. Meanwhile, Trump’s messaging—focused on themes of economic grievance, loss, and a promise to "make America great again"—tapped into a deep-seated frustration that Bidenomics never addressed.

People don't vote on GDP; they vote on how they feel when they fill up their gas tanks, buy groceries, or pay their bills. Bidenomics might have been technically successful, but it failed to acknowledge the lasting emotional scars of the pandemic and economic uncertainty. Without a story that made sense to voters, the administration’s numbers rang hollow.

The Danger of Technocratic Politics

The Biden administration’s reliance on data and charts to sell its policies also points to a broader issue in modern liberal politics: a belief that facts and statistics alone can win hearts and minds. In reality, voters aren’t spreadsheets. They are individuals with fears, hopes, and a need for leaders who seem to understand their struggles. By focusing on abstract economic indicators, Bidenomics often came across as disconnected from the lives of ordinary people.

Trump, on the other hand, has always excelled at speaking directly to emotion. His rallies, speeches, and social media presence didn’t hinge on presenting data; they were about creating a visceral connection with his audience. Whether or not his claims about the economy were accurate mattered less than the fact that they felt true to his supporters.

The Lessons of 2024: Numbers Must Tell a Human Story

The 2024 election underscores the need for politicians to bridge the gap between data and experience. Numbers don’t lie, but they also don’t tell the whole truth about what it means to live in an economy. Bidenomics may have been well-intentioned and even effective in some areas, but its failure to resonate highlights a fundamental truth about politics: people care less about what’s true on paper and more about what feels true in their lives.

As Democrats regroup after this loss, they’ll need to rethink how they communicate their policies and priorities. The challenge is not just to show the public that the economy is improving but to make them feel it—and to weave a narrative that connects policy successes to the struggles and aspirations of ordinary Americans. Without this connection, even the best economic numbers will continue to fall flat.