So You’re Saying We Literally Live in a Simulation? A Public Service Announcement
By The American Gadfly
It has come to our attention that Michael Kelman Portney has been spotted thinking about reality again.
This is, of course, a problem.
Because when someone publicly thinks about reality—especially in a way that involves probabilities, philosophy, and quantum mechanics—it triggers a well-documented phenomenon known as Immediate and Total Conceptual Breakdown (ITCB).
ITCB occurs when a person, presented with a thought experiment, assumes that the speaker is not proposing an idea for consideration but rather:
Announcing a new religion.
Declaring something literally, unequivocally, 100% true with no room for nuance.
Preparing to start dressing like Morpheus.
Michael Kelman Portney has, regrettably, fallen into this trap. By following a simple line of reasoning about quantum mechanics, probability, and Occam’s Razor, he has accidentally convinced some people that he is:
A simulation truther who spends his days trying to see through the walls.
A techno-mystic who believes the sky is made of pixels.
A guy who definitely watched The Matrix one too many times.
Now, to be fair, Portney is not helping himself. He has, after all, arrived at a 99.9% probability that we are in a simulation. This is an alarmingly specific number for something most people think of as a fun sci-fi premise. And if history has taught us anything, it’s that when you attach a specific percentage to a philosophical idea, people assume you have lost your mind.
The Public’s Response: A Healthy, Reasonable Discussion
So how has the world reacted to Portney’s argument?
With calm, measured analysis?
Of course not.
Instead, the public has boiled it down to one fundamental accusation:
“So you’re literally saying we live in a video game?”
Now, this is an interesting rhetorical move. By phrasing it this way, the speaker avoids having to engage with the details of the argument and instead jumps straight to imagining Michael Kelman Portney screaming at his reflection in a bathroom mirror.
This is an unfortunate misunderstanding, but an understandable one. Thought experiments are tricky business, and probability—even trickier. People like certainty. They do not like being told that their entire existence might be a well-optimized computational process running on unknown hardware.
A Quick Guide to Thought Experiments (For Those Who Are Nervous)
If you are feeling personally attacked by the idea that we might be in a simulation, don’t worry. We’ve prepared a short guide to help you calmly process what’s happening.
Step 1: Acknowledge That Thought Experiments Are Not Declarations of Literal Truth
When a scientist says, “Imagine you are a photon traveling at the speed of light,” you are not expected to actually become a photon.
When a philosopher says, “Consider that reality might be an illusion,” you are not expected to jump out a window just to check.
Similarly, when Portney says, “Based on quantum mechanics, discovery vs. invention, and probability, I believe we are almost certainly in a simulation,” you are not required to assume that he now spends his free time looking for texture pop-ins in the sky.
Step 2: Understand That Probabilities Are Not Absolute Statements
99.9% is not 100%.
Portney has not issued a decree that we are, with absolute certainty, inside a simulation. He has simply made the case that it is the most probable explanation given the available information.
That 0.1% is important. That 0.1% is what keeps us from launching an immediate rescue mission to locate the hard drive that we are all running on.
Step 3: Realize That Even If We Are in a Simulation, It’s Not Your Problem
If Portney is right, and we are in a simulation, what changes for you?
Will your dog stop loving you? No.
Will taxes go away? Also no.
Will you still need to go to work tomorrow? Unfortunately, yes.
Your simulated boss still expects your simulated body to show up at the simulated office.
Nothing about your day-to-day existence changes except that now you have a fun fact to bring up at parties.
Final Thoughts: Should You Be Alarmed?
Not at all.
Michael Kelman Portney is not trying to break out of the simulation. He is not running around with a USB stick looking for the mainframe. He is not standing on a street corner shouting “WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!”
He is simply making an argument about probability—an argument that, so far, no one has effectively refuted.
You don’t have to agree with him. You don’t have to like what he’s saying. But you do have to admit: he is not literally saying we live in a video game.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to stare at the sky and see if I can make it flicker.
