The Pride Before The Fall: How Joe Biden Got Donald Trump Elected Again
By Michael Kelman Portney
The 2024 election marked a major turning point in American politics, with Donald Trump achieving an unprecedented return to the presidency. While a multitude of factors contributed to Trump’s resurgence, a close examination of Joe Biden’s leadership and decisions reveals a series of missteps that directly paved the way for his own defeat. Biden had originally positioned himself as a transitional leader, hinting during his 2020 campaign that he would likely serve only one term. As the oldest president in U.S. history, his role was viewed as a short-term stabilizing force, with Vice President Kamala Harris positioned as his likely successor. However, in the wake of a surprisingly strong Democratic performance in the midterms, Biden decided to backtrack on this implied one-term pledge—a decision that would come to haunt him, his party, and the future of American politics.
In the aftermath of the 2022 midterm elections, where the Democratic Party performed better than expected, Biden’s confidence in his popularity and leadership appeared to grow. Buoyed by these results, Biden and his team saw the midterms as a validation of his administration’s performance, interpreting them as a sign that Americans approved of his leadership style and policies. Rather than viewing the midterms as a narrow win in a polarized environment, Biden saw the results as a mandate for his continued leadership. This misplaced confidence led him to backtrack on his initial promise of serving a single term, setting in motion a series of strategic missteps that ultimately paved the way for his defeat and Trump’s comeback.
Yet Biden’s interpretation of the midterm results as an endorsement of his presidency overlooked critical signals of discontent. His approval ratings remained tepid, with many Americans dissatisfied with the administration’s response to inflation, housing costs, and healthcare. Biden’s decision to seek a second term forced the Democratic Party to stand behind an increasingly unpopular leader, tying their fate to a president whose public support was steadily eroding. Rather than stepping aside to make room for fresh leadership, Biden’s choice stifled the party’s ability to cultivate new voices and approaches, leading to widespread frustration within the Democratic base.
By deciding to run again, Biden not only overestimated his support but also placed Vice President Kamala Harris in a politically impossible position. Harris, who had entered the administration as a promising future leader, was effectively trapped. With Biden running for a second term, Harris was forced to support him fully, unable to distinguish herself or forge her own path within the party. As Biden’s approval ratings declined, Harris’s image became inextricably linked to his, leaving her unable to carve out an independent identity that might have resonated with voters. The administration’s refusal to recognize Biden’s waning popularity meant that Harris, rather than emerging as a compelling future candidate, was tethered to an administration that increasingly represented political inertia.
Biden’s decision to pursue a second term also exacerbated his administration’s issues with policy execution and public perception. Despite promises of economic relief, his presidency was marred by high inflation, stagnant wages, and soaring housing costs. While he initially pledged to tackle these issues head-on, the administration’s response was often viewed as too little, too late. Instead of addressing economic challenges with urgency, Biden downplayed inflation as temporary or blamed it on external factors, leaving many Americans feeling that he was out of touch with their daily struggles. This detachment fed into a growing perception that Biden’s administration was reactive rather than proactive, reluctant to confront the very issues that mattered most to the public.
Beyond economic concerns, Biden’s presidency was marked by a series of broken promises on issues that had helped him win the 2020 election. Biden’s campaign had promised expanded healthcare access, comprehensive student debt relief, and ambitious climate action. However, these initiatives either stalled or were significantly scaled back. For example, Biden’s initial commitment to addressing climate change was diluted into modest regulatory reforms, disappointing younger voters who saw climate action as essential. Similarly, his student debt relief efforts were limited, failing to meet the high expectations of younger voters who had looked to Biden as a champion for economic justice. By the time Biden announced his re-election campaign, many key groups within his coalition—young people, working-class voters, and progressives—had grown disillusioned with his leadership, feeling that he had promised much and delivered little.
Biden’s insistence on running again also hamstrung the Democratic Party’s ability to adapt to a shifting political landscape. His choice not to step aside prevented the party from cultivating fresh leadership, trapping Democrats in a defensive position around an incumbent who many Americans viewed as ineffective. Biden’s decision to seek re-election forced the party to double down on an administration that had become, for many voters, a symbol of political complacency. Instead of promoting new ideas and energizing the base, the Democratic Party found itself defending a presidency that struggled to inspire confidence.
This overreach by Biden allowed Trump to position himself as a dynamic alternative to what many viewed as a stale and ineffective administration. By 2024, Trump’s campaign seized on Biden’s missteps, presenting Trump as a strong leader ready to address the issues that Biden had failed to tackle. Trump’s straightforward, populist messaging struck a chord with voters frustrated by Biden’s cautious, often indecisive approach. Biden’s backtracking on his one-term pledge gave Trump the opportunity to frame himself as a corrective force, promising decisive action on issues ranging from inflation and national security to immigration and healthcare. For disillusioned voters, Trump’s aggressive, anti-establishment stance offered an appealing alternative to the perceived stagnation of the Biden administration.
Perhaps most damagingly, Biden’s decision to run again prevented Harris or any other Democratic figure from emerging as a viable successor. By choosing to pursue a second term, Biden sidelined Harris’s ability to establish her own platform and build a rapport with voters. Without a clear path to independence, Harris’s image became inseparably tied to Biden’s, undermining her credibility and positioning her as an extension of an administration that many Americans felt had fallen short. The result was a party that lacked a compelling vision for the future, weakening its appeal and depressing enthusiasm among voters. By the time the election arrived, Democratic voter turnout in key demographics was significantly lower, contributing directly to Harris’s defeat and Trump’s victory.
In retrospect, Biden’s broken pledge and overconfidence following the midterms became the undoing of his presidency. His inability to recognize the limits of his support, combined with a refusal to pave the way for new leadership, set the stage for an election that delivered Trump back to power. Rather than seeing himself as a bridge to the future, Biden clung to the presidency, forcing the Democratic Party to rally around a leader who no longer inspired public trust. His decision to run again not only alienated critical voter groups but also undermined the Democratic Party’s ability to present a unified, forward-looking vision. The 2024 election wasn’t simply a loss for Biden—it was a direct consequence of his refusal to heed his own pledge, a failure that ultimately cleared the path for Trump’s return.
Biden’s legacy will be overshadowed by these political miscalculations, serving as a cautionary tale about the dangers of overreach and the high cost of ignoring public sentiment. His administration’s failure to read the room, coupled with an inability to adapt, cost the Democratic Party not only the presidency but also its credibility with disillusioned voters. For future leaders, Biden’s tenure underscores the importance of strategic humility, the necessity of passing the torch, and the perils of placing personal ambition above party and country. Biden’s broken pledge left the door wide open for Trump’s resurgence—a legacy that will shape American politics for years to come.
