Ukraine as a Strategic Red Herring: How Russia Used the War to Quietly Infiltrate America
By Michael Kelman Portney
In analyzing the potential motivations behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s worth considering whether the conflict serves as a red herring, diverting Western attention and resources while Russia pursues more subtle but impactful operations within the United States. This hypothesis aligns with principles from The Art of War and concepts in Foundations of Geopolitics, suggesting that Russia’s strategy could involve distraction and indirect infiltration rather than solely territorial conquest. This paper explores the notion that while America and its allies focus on Ukraine, Russia may be quietly using hybrid warfare and influence operations to gain an ideological and social foothold within the U.S.
1. The Concept of the Red Herring in Geopolitical Strategy
In military and political strategy, a red herring serves as a deliberate distraction, drawing attention and resources toward one focal point while a secondary, often concealed objective is pursued. In this context, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could theoretically serve to shift Western focus and resources toward Ukraine while Russia operates covertly within the United States’ political, social, and informational landscapes. This approach aligns with the strategy of indirect warfare, where a nation engages an enemy on multiple fronts to stretch resources thin and create openings for influence in unexpected areas.
2. Shifting America’s Focus and Draining Resources
One of the most immediate effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine has been the immense allocation of American and NATO resources—both in terms of attention and material support—toward defending Ukraine. Here are ways this redirection could serve as a diversionary tactic:
Economic Drain on the U.S. and NATO: The United States has committed billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, along with diplomatic, logistical, and humanitarian support. This substantial commitment limits resources available for other geopolitical priorities, especially in defense and intelligence capacities that might otherwise counter Russian influence in the Western Hemisphere.
Political Polarization over Aid: The prolonged support for Ukraine has deepened political rifts within the United States, with public and political figures divided over whether to continue the investment. This polarization aligns with Russia’s goals, as a divided America is more susceptible to foreign influence. The Ukraine conflict intensifies these domestic disputes, potentially distracting from internal issues and weakening American unity, thus opening opportunities for Russia’s influence operations.
Public Attention Diverted from Domestic Vulnerabilities: While media and public attention are focused on the Ukrainian front, Russia’s influence operations, cyber campaigns, and misinformation efforts within the United States could operate with less scrutiny. With Americans focused on the visible conflict abroad, Russia can further its cyber incursions, social media manipulations, and political influence strategies with fewer checks.
3. Expanding Influence While America Is Distracted
While attention is diverted, Russia’s longstanding influence tactics within the United States may intensify, aligning with a “quiet infiltration” strategy where less visible but impactful goals are pursued.
Cyber Warfare and Information Operations: With American intelligence and defense focused on the security implications of the Ukraine war, Russia has an opportunity to ramp up its cyber and information warfare operations within the U.S. This includes exploiting ideological divisions, spreading disinformation, and manipulating public opinion on social media, often regarding U.S. political issues that exacerbate polarization and erode institutional trust.
Strengthening Economic and Ideological Ties in Key Sectors: Russia could quietly foster relationships with influential American businesses, lobbyists, or media outlets sympathetic to Russian narratives. This aligns with the concept of "soft power" as a way to expand influence subtly, shaping public perception from within rather than through direct military engagement. Diverting attention to Ukraine frees up space for Russian influence operations in these more abstract but influential arenas.
Undermining Trust in U.S. Institutions: With Ukraine dominating the news cycle, it becomes easier for Russia to manipulate narratives that weaken American public trust in its own institutions. Russia has historically capitalized on moments of American disunity, and the Ukraine conflict provides a convenient backdrop against which to continue eroding confidence in the electoral system, the media, and the judiciary.
4. Aligning with Russia’s Long-Term Geopolitical Goals
According to Foundations of Geopolitics, Russian strategy involves undermining Western democracies from within, destabilizing them through non-military means that include psychological, ideological, and cultural warfare. Using Ukraine as a red herring would align with this philosophy, suggesting that the war is not merely a regional conflict but part of a larger, multi-fronted approach to influence.
Establishing Russia as an Enduring Threat: By positioning itself as a prominent global adversary to the West, Russia can keep America and its allies in a state of perpetual alert. While Western powers engage militarily, diplomatically, and economically in Ukraine, they may overlook the quieter incursions Russia is making within their own societies.
Weakening America’s Global Alliances: The prolonged involvement in Ukraine has tested the commitment of NATO allies and strained relations among Western nations, some of whom have expressed hesitation over continued support. This division is beneficial to Russia, as it potentially weakens the unity that Western allies would need to counterbalance Russian influence, both in Europe and in America.
5. Leveraging Hybrid Warfare Tactics in the U.S.
Hybrid warfare combines conventional military action with irregular tactics, including disinformation, cyber warfare, and economic coercion. Using Ukraine as a red herring allows Russia to quietly escalate these hybrid tactics within the U.S., amplifying domestic conflicts and influencing policy indirectly.
Economic Influence through Energy and Trade: The Ukraine conflict has had ripple effects on global energy prices, with Europe and the U.S. seeing economic strain as they adjust energy policies. Russia benefits as energy shortages and rising prices put pressure on Western economies. By destabilizing economic structures, Russia indirectly weakens American morale and increases susceptibility to Russian narratives.
Heightened Polarization through Information Warfare: Russia has long used social media as a tool to polarize American society on issues like race, immigration, and political allegiance. As Ukraine dominates headlines, Russia can amplify domestic divisions through targeted disinformation, promoting narratives that erode faith in democracy and fuel inter-group hostility. With Ukraine drawing primary attention, these narratives are less likely to face coordinated countermeasures.
6. The Broader Implications of Russia’s Strategy
If the Ukraine conflict is indeed a red herring, then the implications extend far beyond the battlefield. Russia’s goal may be not just territorial gains in Eastern Europe but an all-encompassing strategy to weaken America from within by leveraging the U.S.’s own democratic values and divisions against it.
Exposing Weaknesses in Democratic Cohesion: The conflict in Ukraine highlights the challenges America faces in maintaining support for international efforts among a divided public. The visible costs and ideological divides associated with supporting Ukraine expose rifts within American democracy, and Russia can exploit these weaknesses through media manipulation and social division tactics.
Escalating the Crisis of Confidence in Government: A prolonged commitment to the Ukraine war creates a scenario where Americans may become disillusioned with prolonged foreign engagements, particularly if they perceive these efforts as a drain on domestic prosperity. As trust in the government diminishes, Russia stands to gain from the public’s diminished faith in American institutions, furthering its goal of destabilizing the United States from within.
Conclusion: Ukraine as a Strategic Distraction and the “Quiet Invasion” of America
By framing the Ukraine conflict as a red herring, this analysis suggests that Russia’s objectives extend beyond territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe. Instead, it could be part of a broader strategy to weaken the United States through hybrid warfare, distracting it abroad while infiltrating its society from within.
If the Ukraine war serves as a grand diversion, it aligns with the principles of The Art of War and Foundations of Geopolitics, emphasizing indirect influence, distraction, and subversion over direct confrontation. For the United States, recognizing this possibility means reevaluating its focus on visible military conflicts and fortifying its resilience against internal division and foreign influence. Countering such a multi-layered strategy requires not just military power but an equally sophisticated approach to counterintelligence, media literacy, and public unity, ensuring that America remains vigilant not only abroad but also at home.
